Dead Wax Society

Just another blog about nostalgia for wax and baseball cards

2011 Topps Gypsy Queen correct insert ratios or is Topps trying to be deceptive?

Update: I’ve written a new post about this, “Part 2”

I posted this on the Blowout Cards forum, it is a pretty long read but I wanted to talk about it after someone posted how difficult it was to find a Stamp Parallel. I had been looking into the ratios because I was collecting the GQ Mini sets and wanted to see if there was a correlation between price and the insert ratio.

If you do not want to read all of this: The insert ratios that Topps has printed on packs of Gypsy Queen Hobby do not display the likelihood of pulling the insert card over the entire number of Hobby packs produced (which is 1350 cases * 10 boxes/case * 24 packs/box = 324,000 packs). Given known print counts of specific inserts, we can see the ratio to pull said card does not relate to the total pool of 324,000 packs in Gypsy Queen Hobby.

This is a long post and it could be I am way off with my math and my understanding of how Topps displays its ratios on its pack wrappers, but I have been looking through them and a lot of the ratios seem to be very off.

Since we only know the exact numbers for Hobby, (1,350 cases) we can figure out whether they get the ratio is correct or not for inserts that are Hobby only. Since they don’t really announce the number of Rack Pack, Blasters and 24/boxes for Retail, it is hard to figure out what Retail Numbers should really be.

Lets start out with ones that are correct. Mini Variations, Mini Home Run Heroes, Mini Great Ones, Mini Future Stars. You receive one card of all 4 types per Hobby box so all their numbers should equal 13,500 (1350 cases * 10 boxes)

Mini Variations: 100 cards * 135 each, Mini HRH 25*540, Mini GO 30*450, Mini FS 20*675

All of those add up correctly: 13500. Now let’s go through all the inserts that are Hobby only.

Leather Minis: 350 cards in the set, limited number to 10. Total # is 3500, Ratio to pull says 1 per 75 packs, however assuming it is 1350 cases of Hobby that have the Leather Minis, the ratio to pull should be 1 per 92.57 packs, or 1:93.

State Stamp Parallels: Has the same run as Leather Minis, and you can see they are in both Hobby and Retail packs. Look at the # for Hobby: It is 1:93! In fact, the ratios to get State Stamp Parallels should be lower than the Leather Minis since Topps redistributed some into Retail, so the number should be much higher than 1 in 93 packs. It is hard to tell since we don’t have an exact pack count for Retail.

Framed Printing Plates and Framed Mini Printing Plates have the same # of cards (350base * 4 plates) yet their pack ratios for Hobby are different? How is this accurate? If a normal framed printing plate is 1:144 packs, that means there should be 2250.0 of these. The correct ratio seems to be 1:232 or 1:231

Insert Printing Plates: 75 *4 = 300 cards, Ratio says pull 1 per 651 packs. At that ratio there should be 497-498 of said cards. Correct ratio looks to be 1 per 1080 packs (1:1080)

60th Anniversary autographs: 5 * 60 = 300 cards, Ratio says pull 1:1447, Correct Ratio should be 1:1080.

Original Art Patches: 50*1 = 50 cards, Ratio says 1:5426, at that ratio it should be 59-60 cards 1:6480

Also if the number of minis of any kind is supposed to be 1 per pack, what are the correct ratio of mini pulls? A base mini can’t be 1:1 unless you get a base mini and then another mini parallel inserted at the correct ratio. But according to the sell sheet you are only supposed to receive one mini of any type per pack.

So it should mean if you add up all the ratios of the minis you should get a number close to 1 because that means you are getting 1 of one of those types per pack (like the sell sheet says).

Base Mini + SP Mini + GQ Red Back Mini + Black Mini + Sepia Mini + Leather Mini ~= 1 … but
1 + (1/24) + (1/6) + (1/12) + (1/44) + (1/75) ~= 1.32

What that means is that the correct base mini ratio should be something to 1:1.5 or 2 every 3 packs.

Now it could be that Topps changed the sell sheet and really has it as 1 base mini guaranteed per pack + another type of mini at their insert ratios. I don’t remember if I pulled any packs from my box that had both a base mini and a parallel/insert mini so if anyone can clear this part up for me that would be nice.

I am pretty sure my numbers/math is right but maybe its wrong or there is another explanation. I would appreciate if someone could explain why the numbers are so off.

Also, if you look at the autograph ratios for Autographs A-E: [(1/47)+(1/57)+(1/1064)+(1/605)+(1/1422)] autos/pack * 24 packs/box = 1 auto/box

Of course the only reply I get is from someone who obviously didn’t read through my post.

Why are you making it so hard on yourself? It is a fact that there are only 48 sketch cards. So…

48 sketch cards * 5426 (1 in 5426 packs to pull) = 260,448 packs or 10,852 boxes or 1,085 cases produced

Obviously there is only 48 sketch cards but since he is using the ratios published by Topps, that means it’s stating that only 1085 cases were produced of Hobby. How can there are only 1085 cases when Topps has provided the number of cases to be at 1350? Also Mini Insert Parallels of Home Run Heroes, Great Ones and Future Stars and the Mini Variations all come in at 13500  (or 10 per case), or one of each insert per box.

Just look at both the Printing Plate and the Mini Printing Plate ratio. They both have the same number of total plates (350*4) yet they come in at different ratios?

If you assume the ratio is based on how many cases they were inserted into (then multiplied by 240 to get the pack count of the  box), how is that not deceptive? If I insert a 1/1 card into a production of 10 cases with 10 boxes and 24 packs per, can I really say your ability to pull that card is 1:240 (since it only shows up in one case and one case has 240 packs)? No, because your correction ratio is 1:2400 (10 cases * 10 boxes * 24 packs = 2400 packs), or a ten fold increase in your likelihood to pull ratio for said card.


Written by deadwaxsociety

May 29, 2011 at 8:46 am

Posted in Topps, Topps Baseball

%d bloggers like this: